How the son of Jomo Kenyata did it this time !

Uhuru Kenyatta is set to become the fourth President of Kenya in an election that smirked of too many similarities to the bungled 2007 presidential elections. But if you are a Jubilee coalition supporter hold off your order for that cold Tusker and don’t even think of putting those goat ribs over a charcoal fire just yet because there are too many uncertainties that still linger in the air. Will Moi's Second Project Work? Vengeful Moi Moi once looked at a beaming journalist delighted at the restoration of multi-party politics in the country and made a very odd statement. He said in Swahili; Hii multi-party itachoma nyinyi. Kenyans did not have to wait for too long to find out what he meant as houses and property was literally burnt down all over the Rift Valley in the infamous land clashes. Former minister of state in president's office, Burudi Nabwera in a heated exchange with the former president revealed to the public that the former president had imported arrows into the country which had turned up in the clashes. The former president had accepted multi-party democracy to be restored in Kenya while under intense pressure from the world community and in retrospect would never have survived politically had he continued to stubbornly turn down the idea. But he made sure that people paid for it dearly. The First project, Uhuru Kenyatta failed miserably in 2002. Has the former president and self proclaimed professor of politics learnt anything? Take Rift Valley for instance. There is still a very strong anti-Kikuyu sentiment amongst the Kalenjin community Kikuyu versus Kalenjin tensions and mistrust in the Rift Valley dates back to the time shortly after independence when President Kenyatta allocated himself vast tracts of land in the agricultural rich Rift Valley. Many of those close to him did the same and the result was an "invasion" of Kalenjin land a lot of which was taken forcibly and illegally without proper compensation to the previous owners. An uneasy calm was somehow maintained during most of President Moi's tenure, but when multiparty politics was forced on Moi, he decided that it was time for all Kikuyus (including many of those who had obtained the land legally) to be ejected. What followed were the infamous land clashes of the Rift Valley that started in the early 90s. This is the reason Moi has carefully made his announcements in a piecemeal fashion. He started by urging the Kalenjins to reject ODM Raila Political Party. He then added that he would tell them who to vote for as president at a later time. He did not mention his preferred presidential candidate even when he clearly already knew who that person was.Politics is a game where one shifts with the wave. Kanu was definitely the most popular political party amongst the Kalenjin but the masses could easily fall into a wave to support another presidential candidate many look for . The Rift Valley is one place that no presidential contender can afford to take lightly. Not only are there a very high number of votes in the province but the province also boasts of the highest number of parliamentary seats. Moi and his cronies seem to be pretty sure that they hold sway in Rift Valley and both Baba Gidi and Gidi himself (reputed to be the richest Kenyan and the second richest respectively) are hatching a plot to neutralize Raila Odinga's popularity in the province. When those who like to analyze how presidential campaigns are won sit down to figure out how the son of Jomo did it, one name will have to feature prominently. That of William Ruto, his running mate and now deputy president-elect. Those who know this man who barely 20 years ago used to hang out at “jobless corner” (a hangout for hungry frustrated job seekers that is opposite the Hilton hotel in Nairobi) will tell you that he is a crafty political player who is not even trusted by the supporters of the president elect. How he even successfully put together the two main warring tribes in the 2007 elections together still baffles many. This blogger predicted many times that the alliance would not hold and that he would never deliver Kalenjin votes with the wounds of the last elections still unhealed. But not only has it held together but it has managed to win Uhuru a mind boggling share of the massive Rift Valley vote against all expectations. It would have been nice to have had a non-controversial credible election to see how this contest would have really turned out. As it is we will never know because whatever happens next the circumstances have changed drastically and forever. One of the most fascinating aspects to come out of this election is the reaction of many people in Nyanza to the results. Many are blaming Raila for not having a clear strategy in his entire campaign and repeated references are being made to the CORD nominations which went badly wrong in Nyanza with what most people saw as a deliberate attempt to try and force candidates on them. However observant political analysts will sympathize with Raila who has been on almost permanent campaign mode since 2002 and probably earlier. Fatigue and exhaustion were clearly visible in him during the campaigns and there is no doubt that this greatly affected his bid this time round. In many public meetings his voice sounded hoarse and tired and he even babbled at times and fell asleep in clear sight of the cameras at one church function. This was in sharp contrast to Uhuru who appeared much more energetic, sharper and eloquent in his delivery. The big question now is what happens next. Regular readers of DIRA YETU will know that several times in the past 4 month or so I gave the unfolding scenario as the most likely outcome of these elections. Just like I did for the 2007 general elections. My heart goes out to all those ordinary Kenyans whose lives have already been badly affected by these elections because business has been down with all the tension. Some of them rely on their daily earnings to put food on the table and have therefore gone hungry in recent days. I hate to imagine what will happen to them in the days to come as the situation in Kenya becomes even more tense with court cases and allegations of rigging.