Curent Kenyan Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka

Those who love Sylvester Stallone “Rocky” boxing movies, know that throwing the white towel is not an option. Rather than Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka throw in the white towel, he should use the analogy of poker game where the presidential candidates are the poker players and the 18 million expected voters represent the 100% chips. Look at 5 candidates: Raila, Uhuru, Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Kenneth, as the main players then play the game with only one goal beating them and finishing first with most votes 4th March. Whereas Kalonzo momentum is slow he still can easily win the President seat. On 4th March 2013 the 100% the 5 teams will divide the 100% most likely as follows: 26%, 24%, 20%, 16% and 14%. At the moment, Ruto who was in the big five lined behind Uhuru. Peter Kenneth who has teamed up with Tuju joined is now in the big five. Mudavadi Team is consolidating Wamalwa, Jirongo and Wentegula behind them and is progressing forward. Raila team is well formed and is very aggressive indeed they would be happy to have Kalonzo line up behind Raila. The question Kalonzo has to answer to himself and his supporters is: Can I get to 26% or 24% and be 1st or 2nd so as to go to the run-off? If answering this question for him I would say right now he can. The most important thing a competitor does is have the desire to win. Can Kalonzo build up to get to 26% in first round and promote himself to become President? Here is a simple build up to 26% that one can build with very little money and still achieve 26%. Kamba 10% If Kalonzo right does not withdraw from the Presidential race he will get the solid 10% of Kamba vote. Kambas will not vote for anyone else if Kalonzo is on the Presidential ballot. However if he withdraws from the Presidential race this block could fragment. Teaming up with Candidates Like Martha Karua 8% Whereas Martha Karua has said she will go all the way, Kalonzo could find a way to team up with her. Karua could be convinced to become a running mate. First she can bring the gender balance with consideration she is the highest ranked national woman political leader. Second she already has a following. If Karua concentrated 50% ofl her effort in Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Laikipia, Isiolo and Samburu belt and the 50% in Nairobi, Nakuru and Mombasa she could add the 8% in the basket. As Uhuru & Ruto team fades, this team would get about 10% of Central and the Northern region of Eastern. There are also other alternatives that can be explored to get a solid 8% from this region. Kisii & Nyamira counties 2% The V.P in Boston said that if Kisii does not change it could become a slum. A great message and plan for Kisii 3% and Nyamira 2% counties, a combined 5% of the vote could get the V.P a minimum of 1%. The last person to carry the whole block was Simeon Nyachae 2002. An endorsement from Nyachae could guarantee build to 2% and could make him the lead person in the two counties. This is some counties he will need to battle and spend some time. Mandela, Wajir & Garissa Counties 2% These three counties have 7% of vote. Mandela County 3%, Wajir 2% and Garissa 2%. Kalonzo should look to come with 2% through a strong team and a clear message for region. He should invest more time here. Nairobi, Mombasa and Nakuru Counties 2% These three counties 14% vote; Nairobi 8%, Nakuru, 4% and Mombasa 2%, have about 8% of the vote that will vote based on independent thinking. Kalonzo should look at the candidates who are dropping out and create a team that can be able to get 2% of the 8% independent thinkers in Nairobi. He does not need to campaign in Nairobi. Kwale, Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu & Tana River Counties 2% These 3 counties have a 7.5% vote. Kilifi 3%, Kwale 2%, Taita Taveta 1%, Tana River 1% and Lamu .5%. After factoring out the Kamba vote in region Kalonzo should aim to get at least 2% of the vote. This plan to 26% could give him a chance to finish first. Kalonzo should play a part in shaping Kenya future by competing and desiring to win just like Uhuru, Raila, Mudavadi and Kenneth. This competition would be great for Kenya especially because for the first time there is going to be a run-off. As for now visualizing Kalonzo representing the best hope for Kamba children say, “Let’s settle for Deputy president,” is not what great stories are about.