Tuesday, 8 March 2016

Which way are the way forward for Zanzibar ?

In an earlier last year we had promised to launch a new separate blog dealing with historical political assassinations in Zanzibar after the 1964 revolution but the politicians in Zanzibar demanded we hold on this one .We have since reviewed our position and it has been decided that this important feature will be carried within this Dira blog. We will have one specific entry every month dedicated to this subject that has just refused to go away,? when not sure but very soon. It is now very clear that before proper healing can take place in Zanzibar we will need to revisit the past and face our ghosts there who have now made our present life impossible.

On corruption.

And that is precisely how the culture of seeking political office to make money started. It started from the top.

We can never hope to win the fight against corruption until we address this root origin of political power and grabbing our  money from poor Zanzibari. There is no way Zanzibar will move forward without revealing the cause of in security of some Politicians in Zanzibar how they will inherit the power from one family to another.And how they have got rich from bogus investors and bogus contracts which have cost the country dearly. 

And how do we do it?

The next government should have a truth and reconciliation commission set up where all these crimes against the people should be tabled. The perpetrators or their descendants should be forgiven. (There is really no way you can prosecute all of them). Only then can start again and move on to a new culture where people will never again seek political office to gain wealth or worse still to protect their wealth. What wealth is that that cannot be protected by the constitution?

Listen to former Nigerian President on Zanzibar political situation.

Sadly, information reaching this blogger will not make it better for any of you  CCM hardliner in Zanzibar. Sources inform this blogger that major political realignments inside CCM insiders  are already underway even as anxiety grips the political class., they remain acutely aware of unforeseen career-ending events that are beyond their individual control within the political arena .
Information leaked from the corridors of power has  observers asking themselves: how deeply indebted is this country to its so-called ‘first families’? It has been revealed that the Sheni succession,He will be forced about to precipitate a major cabinet re-shuffle after March 20th rubber-stamp election. The reshuffle will elevate Hussein Mwinyi to the Vice Presidency, and in the process put him in pole position to be named the country’s next President? This was Mzee Ruksa’s demand, when they have state house discussion in exchange for letting Dr. Sheni to break the Zanzibar constitution and remain illegally in the Zanzibar Presidency. It is very clear that, last October, Dr Sheni lost to Former First Vice President Seif Sheriff Hamad. Hamad got 200,077 Votes  52.87 % compared to Dr Sheni who got 178,363 votes.47.1%

How ever Magogoni State House is holding the Key
 .Which is very Clear Last October election Dr Sheni lost to Former First Vice President Seif Sheriff Hamad .Hamad got 200,077 Votes  52.87 % compared to Dr Sheni who got 178,363 votes.47.1%

Magogoni state house is holding the Key for next Zanzibar President .

THE FIGHT FOR VICE PRESIDENT POSITION .Now the war is between three members of the old guard. All are former Ambassadors, and they are positioning  themselves to inherit the power in Zanzibar. This one stinks of Magogoni.  Rumors have it that this three will never be selected for this Vice President position 

 . I was told that Magogoni has demanded new blood and reform inside CCM Zanzibar, and that the next Sheni Government might not last long (just as Dr Idris Abdul Wakil was forced to retire in order to save the party). As  I told you in 2013, Shein will be a one-term President, after claiming to have won the Zanzibar Presidency by 3800 votes. I even predict that  Magufuli will be a one-term President if he cannot resolve the issue of the new Union Constitution – an issue that cost CCM Zanzibar dearly in last October election. Ambassador Seif Iddi’s  fate in the post-Sheni alignments remains unclear, but what is clear is that he has out-lived his political usefulness in the current set-up. The appointment of Mwinyi’s son aims to give Hussein Mwinyi an upper hand on the succession battlefront. 

Dirayetu, you can take the information you read on this post/blog to the bank. Folks, it is not a question of IF, but WHEN.  In other words, you should expect to vote again much earlier than 2020, or you might see another Temporary Nusu Mkate (half loaf  Government in which the  two Lions of Zanzibar continue to share power  for two years, and hold a new election after the Lions agree on when, and under what conditions, to bring peace  to Zanzibar and reduce the diplomatic pressure on the Magufuli Government. 

CCM has lost the mandate to govern alone in Zanzibar. For example, since 1995 on the sister island of Pemba, the ruling party has lost all Union Parliamentary seats. This year, all seats in the Zanzibar House of Representatives as well all Union Parliament positions from Pemba were easily won by CUF. EVEN AFTER SPENDING OVER 400 million Tanzanian Shillings on saving seats on Pemba Island, CCM lost its three diwani (councilor) positions. There is in fact speculation inside the CCM that that campaign money was pocketed by some politician. Insider information says that after Maalim announced  his wining numbers, some CCM leaders blamed each other for stealing CCM campaign money and helping to lose the election. So there are MAJIPU (infected boils of corruption) on CCM Zanzibar. Many of these so-called MAJIPU center on who will hold ministerial portfolios in the next government.

Many unpopular characters, like Ambassador Seif Iddi , Shamsi Nahodha , Ali Karume and the former African Union Ambassador Amina Salim Ali are hoping for cabinet positions. But don’t be surprised if these   names  will not appear in Zanzibar political arena. 


If another (Nusu Mkate) temporary Government is formed and operates for the next two years, it is likely that New Vice President Hussein Mwinyi will be new Candidate for the CCM Zanzibar Presidency.

In the October 2015 election, CCM and CUF split Zanzibar constituencies 50/50. CUF and CCM each got 27 seats.  If diplomats shuttle around and manage to arrange the formation of another Nusu Mkate government We have less than two weeks before the cancellation of this ten-billion-shilling unconstitutional  rerun election takes place.  Let’s wait and see if the two lions can come together and form a Nusu Mkate Government, or if CCM will hold onto power solo.

 Zanzibar academics are now have different opinion that the two parties, CUF and CCM, should run a Comoro-style government, in which, in a variation of a ‘two-round’ system, each island chooses a leader, and, every five years, the presidency rotates between the major islands.  Such a system, if implemented in Zanzibar, could reduce tensions, and prevent any one side from feeling over-ruled by the other. Others have gone so far as to suggest that
Others have gone so far as to suggest that the results of the 2010 GNU referendum (in which 66% of Zanzibaris voted in support of the Government of National Unity), is a sign that we should ask Zanzibari on referendum  the Comoros model


How Zanzibari Voted anyway last October ELECTION  let see number always number  don't lie.: 

Unguja Island:

We start with 
MJINI DISTRICT  :  CCM got 44,519 Votes compared to CUF .351551

KASKAZINI A  district  : CCM 19,781 votes compared to  CUF 17236 votes.

KASKAZINI B   CCM 14,931 votes compare with CUF 6370 votes

KATI district  this is CCM strong hold . CCM 23,597 votes  compared with CUF 6809

KUSINI district  CCM 23,597 votes CUF 4048

MAGHARIBI A district  CCM 22,485 CUF 18214

Magharibi B district  CCM 25,076 CUF 19280

Pemba Island 

WETE District  CUF 31,197 CCM 3618

MICHEWENI district  CUF 20,969 CCM 2893

CHAKE CHAKE  District CUF 24,831 CCM 5059

MKOANI  District CUF 22,467 CCM 6132

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