CONGO SLOPPY GAME TO ELECTIONS

Patrice Lumumba (left center) immediately after being sworn in as the first Prime Minister 

The Belgians rushed the process of Congolese independence in 1960, but in the days following the formal handover of power to Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba, the country’s most resource-rich province, Katanga, seceded. Katanga’s mines produced vast amounts of copper as well as the uranium that produced the fuel for the American bomb that decimated Hiroshima.

The secession sparked a five-year conflict during which Lumumba was assassinated and overthrown, the UN Secretary General Dag Hammarskjöld’s airplane was shot down, and Belgian and UN troops occupied parts of the country. Joseph Mobutu, an army officer, emerged as the head of state in the Congo and remained a staunch Cold War ally of the United States.

Joseph Kabila came to power 17 years ago at the age of 29, following the assassination of the previous incumbent, President Laurent-Désiré Kabila, his father. He was reelected in 2006 and 2011.

In 2012, the country’s 35 bishops condemned the recent election results as subject to “serious errors,” and having been rife with “treachery, lies, and terror.” Cardinal Pasinya called for the results to be annulled and for Congolese to engage in acts of civil disobedience in protest.

Barred by the Congolese constitution from seeking election a third time, Kabila was set to leave office in December 2016, following the election of his successor. That election, originally scheduled for November 2016, has been successively postponed by government authorities, resulting in widespread civil unrest.

What can we expect from the long-awaited DRC elections? Credit: UN Photo/Sylvain Liechti.

As the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) prepares for elections on 23 December, there are still some technical concerns surrounding the vote. The finances, logistics and security of the process all remain somewhat uncertain. Yet after years of deliberate attempts to delay elections, this time it looks like the Congolese government is doing everything it can to ensure they actually happen.

The field:Felix Tshisekedi, right, of Congo's Union for Democracy and Social Progress opposition party, is congratulated by Vital Kamerhe, left, of Congo's Union for the Congolese Nation opposition party, after being endorsed Kamerhe at a press conference in Nairobi, Kenya Friday, Nov. 23, 2018. Congo's two leading opposition parties announced Friday they are joining forces for a run at the presidency after withdrawing from a wider pact to support a single contender to take on President Joseph Kabila's chosen candidate. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)

Congo's two leading opposition parties announced Friday they are joining forces for a run at the presidency after withdrawing from a wider pact to support a single contender against President Joseph Kabila's chosen candidate.Felix Tshisekedi with Congo's most prominent opposition party said he will represent his party as well as that of Vital Kamerhe with one month left before the long-delayed Dec. 23 vote in the mineral-rich Central African nation. This could be the country's first peaceful, democratic transfer of power.

If they do, the outgoing President Joseph Kabila will be doing all in his power to support the regime’s candidate. In August, key personalities in the presidential ruling majority came together to pick their nominee for the elections. After long and complex discussions, the group selected Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, a former interior minister and secretary-general of Kabila’s Parti du Peuple pour la Reconstruction et la Démocratie (PPRD).

This choice is a clear reflection of Kabila’s strategy for when he steps down. By picking the relatively unknown 57-year-old, the president appears to be trying to create his own political class – one made up of figures that have few ties to international actors and lack independent power bases. This means they are completely indebted to Kabila.

The main remaining question is where the rest of the regime stands. Will the different antagonistic forces accept and loyally support Shadary as a compromise candidate? So far, that does not seem to be the case. The ruling majority is divided. Many influential figures had their own ambitions and are now frustrated. Meanwhile, everybody is nervous because they will have to re-navigate their place in the post-Kabila constellation. Until now though, the regime has managed to keep these cracks under the surface. If if finds itself struggling, it may have to rely more on its military pillar to maintain its authority.

Up against Shadary are several challengers. On 11 November, seven key opposition figures gathered in Geneva as the Lamuka (“Arise”) Coalition to pick a single candidate. Previously, Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba had been touted as the most promising opposition leaders, but their disqualifications left Félix Tshisekedi and Vital Kamerhe as the principal contenders to unite the opposition.

Eventually, however, the group decided on Martin Fayulu to be the alliance’s joint flag-bearer. The Kinshasa-based MP has a lot of grassroots credibility in the capital, but is largely unknown as a national figure. He was likely a compromise candidate, though the historic compromise did not last long. 24 hours after the agreement was announced, Tshisekedi withdrew his signature under pressure from party militants on the ground. A couple hours later, Kamerhe did the same. For now, the five remaining signatories of the Lamuka Coalition have stuck with their decision to support Fayulu. They hope to broaden the coalition with other political leaders and civil society (including church) support. Nonetheless, the aftermath of the Geneva meeting has certainly created an impression of total mediocrity in the opposition. 

The rules

On paper, the presidential race seems very open. According to a recent poll, Tshisekedi is backed by 36% of voters, followed by Kamerhe (17%), Shadary (16%) and Fayulu (8%). Given that the DRC uses first-past-the-post system in which whoever gets the highest number of votes wins, Tshisekedi is the candidate to beat – assuming the contest is free and fair. At least, that was the situation before the Lamuka Agreement. It remains to be seen to what extent the coalition around Fayulu will be able to mobilize an electorate.But that’s a very big assumption. The reality is that the regime will step in. Shadary has not won the hearts and minds of voters. He is not well-known internationally, lacks financial means, and has more enemies than friends. But, crucially, he will fall back on the state apparatus, including the repression machinery and the official media.If the Congolese government manages to organise the elections in time, it will organise them in order to win them. It will deploy all the pressure, fraud, intimidation and violence necessary to do so. The chances of free and fair elections are nil. That is why the authorities are deploying heavy repression against any potential watchdogs. Congolese journalists and observers bear the brunt of this, but foreigners are also targeted. I am the most recent victim of this crackdown: last month, the government arrested, detained and expelled me from the Congo.

The potential game-changers

In 2016, many observers, including the authorities themselves, believed that grassroots urban anger could be a game-changer in the DRC. People were frustrated that their precarious living conditions had not improved since the fall of the notorious dictator Mobutu in 1997. They complained that unemployment is endemic, decent housing either hard to find or unaffordable, and good health care and education nearly inaccessible to most.

This, combined with Kabila’s refusal to organise elections, led to huge widespread protests. The regime managed to contain the violent potential of this anger with its impressive machinery of repression. The church became the main actor capable of mobilising people, but this capacity has diminished as the government promised to organise elections and then when Kabila confirmed he would step down.

In 2017, as the situation shifted, many believed it was regional and multilateral institutions that were the most likely game-changers. Neighbours like Angola were deeply concerned at the possible impact of further destabilisation across the border. Regional governments no longer saw Kabila as the best guarantee against another implosion in the heart of Africa. Talk of a “Gambian scenario” – in which the region blocked a long-standing dictator in imposing himself – spread.

But the Congolese opposition never created the impression that it was a better bet for stability. Meanwhile, Kabila’s appointment of a successor bought the regime some renewed goodwill from the DRC’s neighbours. Today, it is not clear if the likes of Angola and South Africa have the same interest as before in regime change beyond a managed succession from Kabila to Shadary.

As we speak, in November 2018, the main source of instability is from local conflicts. In different parts of the country and at various levels, leaders are attempting to reinforce their authority in complex webs of power. This political competition as elections approach is leading to rising tensions and violence both between and within communities. In some places, armed groups have re-emerged and the risk of trans-border conflict has increased.

The situation in Ituri, Beni and South Kivu is concerning. The Kasai remains highly volatile. And in many other places such as Congo Central and Sud-Ubangi, tensions could polarise quickly.

The final score

The regime is currently doing everything it can to organise elections on 23 December and install Shadary as the new president. If this happens, the polls will lack credibility and the results will be contested. At this point, many scenarios could unfold, but there is a fair chance the regime will get away with it.

In that case, the international community will have to redefine its relationship with a new Congolese government. That new administration under Shadary will have to work out its fresh internal power balances between antagonistic interest groups and regions, but the regime will be very similar to its processor. It will be one based on patronage networks and bad governance.

It was under Mobutu that the word “kleptocracy” was first coined to describe then Zaire’s system of endemic corruption. President Kabila never managed or even tried to change that system. He merely made it more sophisticated and adapted it for a globalised world. Even after elections and a hand over of power, Congo’s instability will not be over any time soon.

Last week saw the swift collapse of a deal in which Congo's major opposition parties had agreed to back legislator Martin Fayulu Madidi, significantly weakening efforts to defeat ruling party candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary.Congo's election was meant to take place in late 2016. While Kabila this year said he would step aside, the opposition fears he will assert power behind the scenes if Shadary wins.

Tshisekedi, son of the late opposition icon Etienne Tshisekedi, on Friday urged other opposition candidates to "join hands so we can win this election."The announcement means a three-way contest with Kabila's preferred candidate, the new Tshisekedi alliance and Fayulu, who has had the support of two opposition leaders barred by Congo's government from running: former vice president Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi, former governor of the copper-rich Katanga region.

The earlier announcement of Fayulu's candidacy prompted uproar among supporters of Tshisekedi's Union for Democracy and Social Progress party, prompting some to set tires ablaze in the capital, Kinshasa. Within 24 hours, Tshisekedi and Kamerhe, who came third in the 2011 presidential election, withdrew from the deal.

The opposition parties have spent months trying to unify behind a candidate in an election that has caused significant concern in the international community about the possibility of a rigged vote.

Congo has dismissed concerns about its groundbreaking use of voting machines that critics say could pose a technical nightmare in a sprawling nation of more than 40 million voters where infrastructure is dodgy and dozens of rebel groups are active.

Kabila has been in power since 2001 and his mandate expired in late 2016. But he has remained in office while organizing elections, a move his critics say was aimed at maintaining his grip on power.

The Common Front for Congo political platform created by Kabila for the election called Friday's announcement a "non-event."

"With the opposition it is always the same thing, one does not know what they really want," lawmaker Pius Muabilu, a member of the campaign team, told The Associated Press. "The people will decide, and they know who loves the country and who does not."

Power is a service’ Congo archbishop tells candidates Influential church on election stump in DR Congo Kinshasa's new archbishop, Mgr Fridolin Ambongo, urged voters to cast their ballot in the name of national unity and reject violence

Kinshasa's new archbishop, Mgr Fridolin Ambongo, urged voters to cast their ballot in the name of national unity and reject violence (AFP Photo/John WESSELS)

 The influential Catholic Church joined the electoral fray Sunday as the Democratic Republic of Congo gears up for next month's watershed presidential election to chose a successor to veteran leader Joseph Kabila.Addressing several thousand attending mass, new archbishop of Kinshasa, Fridolin Ambongo, made a "vibrant appeal to the patriotic conscience of our people ... not to succumb to provocation and, above all verbal, violence during this presidential campaign."

Instead, he called for national unity ahead of a crucial poll in a volatile, poverty-stricken nation which outgoing President Kabila has ruled with an iron fist since 2001Ambongo, who three weeks ago succeeded charismatic Laurent Monsengwo, used his open-air mass to urge voters they should have no truck with discrimination in any form, be it ethnic or political.

Two of the three main candidates to replace Kabila were in the congregation -- Kabila's hand-picked successor Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary and Martin Fayulu.

Little-known Fayulu had been set to be a unity opposition candidate until a fortnight ago when Felix Tshisekedi, son of DRC's most well-known oppositionist Etienne Tshisekedi who died last year, announced he would stand on a ticket with former National Assembly president Vital Kamerhe.

That decision leaves the opposition weakened.

- 'Campaign in God's hands' -

Catholics have long been pressing for the departure of Kabila, who has clung on to office despite his mandate officially expiring in December 2016. Three Catholic Church-organised rallies earlier this year saw a total of 15 deaths.The election has already been postponed twice but next month a 40-million-strong electorate will have to choose between 21 candidates, who generally lose no opportunity to stress their pro-church credentials.Shadary notably described himself as a practising Catholic when he announced he was standing on August 8.

"Comrade Ramazani Shadary is first and foremost a fervent Christian. He has placed his campaign in God's hands," said Jean-Claude Kazembe Musonda, an official with the pro-Kabila Common Front for Congo (FCC).

But God does not have to take the ruling side, says Kamerhe, who indicated that "before God and the Congolese people I have decided to give my support to Felix Tshisekedi.

Tshisekedi has promised a return to the rule of law, to fight corruption and to bring peace to the east of a country whose east has been ravaged by decades of inter-ethnic bloodshed and militia violence, and has recently been hit by a deadly Ebola outbreak.- Bishops not backing a candidate -

At stake in the vote is the political future of a mineral-rich country that has never known a peaceful transition of power since independence from Belgium in 1960.

Though Tshisekedi and Fayulu may be representing rival opposition strands of opinion they pray at the same protestant church in Kinshasa.

Friday saw Congolese bishops urge "credible elections for a real democratic alternative" while stressing they were not backing any particular candidate, only seeking a leader who would "respect fundamental laws and be a man of his word, honest and of good morality who does not expropriate the country's resources."

The bishops said the country has long been suffering from abuse of powers "to the detriment of the collective well-being."

Around 40 percent of people in DR Congo are Catholic, a similar proportion are Protestant and around 10 percent are Muslim while others are "Kimbanguists," following a prophet in the southwestern city of Nkamba.

The church's influence came to the fore when in late 2016 the episcopal conference brokered a peace accord which provisionally kept Kabila in power pending an election which is now finally just weeks away.

Kabila had a trenchant view on the church's influence when he opined in January that "nowhere in the Bible did Jesus Christ oversee an electoral commission. Render unto God what is due to God and to Caesar what is due to Caesar," the strongman said as he prepared his final year in office.

Kabila himself is married to a Catholic, Olive, and their marriage was celebrated at a joint Catholic and Protestant mass.Archbishop Ambongo noted Sunday that "Christ the King delivers us a prophetic message -- power is a service, humble services to fothers for their accomplishment.