Big shots start poll fight ahead of 2010 elections in Zanzibar

Big shots start poll fight ahead of 2010 elections

16th August 2009
Big guns in the Zanzibar political scenario are already knee-deep in eliciting support and laying down rules of the fight in the run up to the nomination of the Isles presidential candidate for the ruling party, for late next year’s general elections.

It is a scenario that parallels a number of other issues, where Zanzibar and Union authorities are proving incapable of managing, letting things flow like a tide, taking momentary positions in between. Otherwise, according to observers, some of the aspirants would get warnings already.

In what is considered the fiercest campaign run and bare knuckles contest, aspirants are readily putting down the usually shy expressions of interest, skipping the usual denials on the part of those serving in the Union government in particular, and non-expression of views on rival aspirants.

All that practised habit of the last 15 years of multiparty politics as it governs behaviour in the ruling party seems to be a story of the past, observers have noticed. But in a now typical manner, the upper echelons of CCM have nothing to say.

A salutary example was a recent evaluation of the contest scenario by veteran aspirant and ‘scion of Isles royalty,’ Ambassador Ali Abeid Karume, who said next year’s presidential candidate nomination for Zanzibar was between himself and former Isles Chief Minister Dr Gharib Mohammed Bilal.

That seemed to rule out the candidacy of current Chief Minister Shamsi Vuai Nahodha, who is tipped to garner as many votes as his predecessor did, campaigning at the end of two stints as Chief Minister. Usually an aspirant is expected to talk about his own expectations, or focus on his qualities, not evaluating anyone else or others.

The contest that is being cultivated in the Isles corridors of power and influence between the former Chief Minister and his successor is being tampered by the fact that the one orchestrating it is largely seeking the rule of a king maker or broker between the two.

Ambassador Karume hit notoriety in politics in his well publicised bid for the CCM ticket in the Union presidential election in 2005, while he did not make much of a picture in the Isles poll of 2000. Seeking the nomination along with a sibling was rather complicated.

While this contest is building up in the Isles, observers consider it a side show to the real contest, which has largely been muted at the level of aspirants, but it is being played out in an intense manner at the level of organisation, with the Isles wing of CCM seeking to ensure that this time it ‘takes the bull by the horns’ and decides, on its own, who becomes the Isles presidential candidate. It is putting up all the fight it can muster against ‘undue Mainland influence’ in picking the candidate, ignoring well expressed Isles wishes.

Recent battles put up in the House of Representatives against a number of prerogatives of the Union Government in relation to Zanzibar seem to be cast in that direction, for instance seeking constitutional clarification.

It rather interpreted it in a one-sided manner, that oil and gas issues can be removed in a unilateral manner from the Union constitution. Instead of beginning a series of painstaking negotiations that would raise the profile of the Isles administration and especially the Chief Minister, the Union Government ignored the matter, following its clarification in a month end speech by President Kikwete.

Responding to a parliamentary question on the issue in a regular impromptu Prime Minister’s Half Hour question and answer session, Mizengo Pinda said flatly that the matter was a take it or leave it issue, that the Union Government did not plan to negotiate on the matter, outside a proper presentation of a proposal to change the constitution to that effect.

That means any such legislation would go through Parliament and not be received as a ‘fait accompli’ from the House of Representatives, as the Isles Government had more or less intimated. If the Isles still think they could do things their way, he declared, ‘they could go it alone’

Premier Pinda demonstrated beyond all reasonable doubt where the power lay in the current state of affairs, that there would be no effort on the Isles authorities to try and maintain their point of view by some kind of legislation or sequestration of firms involved in oil exploration.

Another idea was floated from the Isles side to make the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) a ‘union’ agency, by which they meant a bilateral agency between the two governments. That could be discussed, Union quarters intoned.

With this effort at a show of strength having collapsed, chances that the Isles wing of CCM makes another effort in relation to deciding the manner of picking the CCM contestant for the Isles presidential poll are rather limited.

It means that those serving in the Union Government have as much a chance at the nomination as those in the Isles administration, but history seems to favour those serving internally. But it isn’t Chief Minister Nahodha who would be favoured, as that would constrain the need for change, an aspect that has proved essential in how CCM top echelons conduct the vote well since TANU-ASP union.