Taking the spice out of politics

Taking the spice out of politics

Nov 12th 2009 | ZANZIBAR TOWN

From The Economist print edition

A pact between the island’s rival parties could prevent more violence and unrest

TANZANIANS are proud of the fact that it was their president, Jakaya Kikwete, who won the race to the White House. Ghana may have been Africa’s first sub-Saharan country to host Barack Obama as president, but Mr Kikwete was Africa’s first head of state to be received in Washington, DC, by the new American leader: a striking endorsement of his country. With messy Kenya and chaotic Congo across the border, and lawless Somalia just up the coast to the north, Tanzania is now viewed in the West as a regional haven of calm in a turbulent neighbourhood.

But there has been a big blot on Tanzania’s record over the years: Zanzibar. The last three elections on the offshore islands that comprise the territory—Pemba and Zanzibar itself—have been increasingly violent and disputed. The opposition Civic United Front (CUF) claims that the elections of 1995, 2000 and 2005 were all stolen by the local branch of Tanzania’s ruling Party of the Revolution, better known by its Swahili initials, CCM.

Last time round, independent observers certainly found many examples of fraud by the CCM in a poll that it officially won by a narrow margin. The result prompted riots by CUF supporters; some were injured in battles with the police. So anxiety about next year’s elections on the islands has been rising. Angry and frustrated CUF militants may react even more fiercely if their party loses yet again.

However, a very rare meeting on November 5th between the CCM president of Zanzibar, Amani Karume, and the CUF’s leader on the islands, Seif Shariff Hamad, may calm things down. The pair declared a peace deal of sorts. Mr Hamad acknowledged Mr Karume as Zanzibar’s legitimate president, something the CUF had hitherto resisted in protest against the rigged election of 2005. Mr Karume in turn says that the government will ensure a fair election next year. The idea of a power-sharing government was also mooted.

Details of the pact remain sketchy. Whatever has been agreed, the CUF’s leaders will find hard to sell it to their supporters, many of whom refuse to believe anything the CCM promises. CUF activists argue that the government is already rigging the next election by denying them the opportunity to register for a vote. But two factors are pushing the sides towards reconciliation: the prospect of oil and the spectre of Islamist terrorism.

Zanzibar already enjoys a large degree of political autonomy from the mainland within the union of Tanzania (born of Tanganyika and Zanzibar coming together in 1964, soon after independence). It has its own parliament, president and anthem. The opposition CUF does not demand secession but wants the islanders to run their own economy. Zanzibar, they complain, always gets a worse deal in terms of aid and investment from abroad. The CUF people say that, despite the popularity of Zanzibar’s ritzy hotels, 70% of the islanders live on no more than $1 a day.

But the discovery of oil and gas under the waters around the islands may change that. Nothing has yet been found but there is a lot of drilling. Both parties want Zanzibar to have the lion’s share of profits if oil begins to flow. Indeed, the CCM’s Zanzibar branch, normally loyal to the national leadership, has broken with it to work alongside the CUF in calling for a change to the union’s constitution to ensure that Zanzibar gets a bigger slice of prospective oil profits than it does, for instance, of Tanzania’s foreign aid, less than 5% of which is allocated to the islands.

Both sides are also aware of the threat of Islamist terrorism spreading down the coast from Somalia. American diplomats repeatedly mention it. So far there has been no sign of extremism on Zanzibar, with its proud Muslim heritage, but CUF leaders such as Ismail Jussa, the party’s foreign affairs spokesman, give warning that if Western-style democracy fails again people may look to sharia law and to political Islam as an alternative, “as they have done elsewhere”.

What is Norway oiling in Zanzibar?
By Chambi Chachage

Zanzibar is back on the national and international agenda. Of course it has always been on the agenda. But it’s a long time since it was such a mysterious agenda. For a whole week we have been treated with puzzling news. ‘What are Karume and Seif up to in Zanzibar? queried The Citizen. ‘Z’bar’s Strange Bedfellows’ quipped the Sunday Citizen.

What I found particularly surprising is not “the recent rare talks between Zanzibar’s erstwhile political foes, President Amani Abedi Karume and the opposition Civic United Front leader, Maalim Seif Shariff Hamad” (Sunday Citizen 15 November 2009). Why should I be shocked while I know if nothing, or anything, is not done now Zanzibar will explode? When? 2010!

Then what did I find surprising? Is it the claim that not even the ruling party let alone the presidency knew about the secrecy behind the meeting? Or is it the assertion that our friends in ‘war on terror’ and piracy are behind the new-found unity in Zanzibar? Could it be the oil factor?

Well, what I found intriguing is the energy that our partners in development, Norway, are putting on this agenda. I am particularly startled given the fact that the Ambassador himself has taken a lead on this. He has “been the busiest and most visible over Zanzibar” affirming that “Norway strongly encourages” Karume and Seif’s “efforts to bring lasting peace to Zanzibar” (Ibid).

Surely we know why Tanzanians or Zanzibaris need lasting peace in Zanzibar. But what about Norwegians? Why should they be interested in such peace? For the sake of humanity? Maybe.

The clue to why our friends in development are so interested in our peace is found in what they have been up to in the past week. Tellingly, their Minister for Environment and International Development was “the first international personality to send a congratulatory message, a few hours after news of the meeting emerged” (Ibid). The Ambassador even crossed the ocean to meet the President of Zanzibar. He also met the Minister responsible for Union Matters.

More tellingly the Norwegian Embassy “conducted two separate workshops for Members of the National Assembly, and the Zanzibar House of Representatives to sensitise them on oil exploration and drilling for an impending Bill on the matter” (Ibid). The possibility of oil discovery in Zanzibar has caused a lot of animosity between those who want its revenues to be shared as a Union Matter and those who don’t. Why, then, is Norway so interested in this issue?

The official website of the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) at http://www.tpdc-tz.com list 17 licensed Oil and Gas Exploration Companies that operates in Tanzania. Out of these only one is from Norway. Its name is Statoil Asa. Ironically, it is not operating in Zanzibar. Rather, it is operating on what is refered to as Deep Sea Block Number 2.

On the map this block is close to Mtwara and Lindi. According to this company’s official website at http://www.statoil.com/ its total area is “11,099 square kilometres, and it lies in water depths of between 400 and 3000 metres” off “the coast of Tanzania in the Indian Ocean.” If a Norwegian company is thus far removed from Zanzibar who then is really involved in Zanzibar?

Apparently the company that is operating in Zanzibar/Pemba is a Canadian one. It is known as Antrim Resources among other names. Shell International from Holland is also operating albeit in the Deep Sea Blocks Number 9, 10, 11 and 12 which, in a way, surrounds Zanzibar. As a matter of fact the whole on and off shore of the Indian Ocean in Tanzania is licensed for oil/gas exploration and companies from as far as Australia, Brazil and the United Kingdom are involved.

It is thus quite clear that there is an international scramble for oil and gas in this Eastern board of Tanzania/Africa. This, I contend, is the one of the main reasons why Norway is so interested in what is going on in Zanzibar. As history has taught us Zanzibar has always been a strategic area.

Commenting on this historical legacy, Abdulrahman Mohammed Babu said: “A country like Zanzibar was quite strategic in superpower manoeuvres because of its historic role in influencing events in the region.” This is the Zanzibar that attracted a whole Empire to move its capital from Muscat into it. It’s the Zanzibar that is facing the shaky Middle East. It is a Zanzibar that is a corridor to Somalia, the new zone of piracy. Who wouldn’t want to control such a Zanzibar?

Surely Norway, as a country that has used oil among other resources to develop, wouldn’t want to be a loser in a battle for the soul of Zanzibar. Neither would ‘America’. Nor would Tanzania.

Chambi Chachage