The arena this time round will be mainland Tanzania and not Zanzibar

The stage was set last week for a showdown on October 31, when Tanzania goes into its most tense general election ever, with incumbent presidential candidate Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete trailing an opposition candidate in one of the three opinion polls, for the first time.

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Political analysts say Kikwete, 60, and the ruling Chama cha Mapenduzi have failed to prevent corruption, and with government performance becoming the central issue of the poll, then the once unthinkable — the CCM losing power for the first time since Independence — is looking like an outside possibility come Sunday.

For a country that has been known for political stability, Tanzania’s election this time round is like no other: A first-time opposition candidate, Willbrod Slaa of the Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema), whose candidature was a political gamble that is paying off, throwing the race wide open; last-minute electoral reforms; talk of rigging and fear of violence.

The second election after former president Julius Nyerere died is being held at a time the gap between the rich and poor is growing, although more money is being made from the country’s extractive industries, taxes and inflation are high and there are unprecedented levels of corruption both in the economy and the political process.

The arena this time round will be mainland Tanzania and not Zanzibar, after constitutional reforms that obligate the party that wins the election to form a government of national unity for that island only.

An opinion poll by non-government organisation Tanzania Citizens Information Bureau found that if elections were held between September 27 and October 10, Dr Willbrod Slaa, 62, would obtain 45 per cent of the votes cast against Kikwete’s 41 per cent. Two earlier polls, one by the Synovate group and the other by a University of Dar es Salaam think tank, showed that Kikwete would win with 61 per cent and 71 per cent respectively.

Analysts say that in the eyes of the public, CCM has gradually deviated from its founding values — fighting corruption, ensuring less spending on government administration and provision of social services — and that its leadership is firmly in the pockets of the capitalist class.

At the same time, Chadema, a 1992 breakaway from CCM — then led by Edwin Mutei, former governor and finance minister who disagreed with Nyerere, his boss then, on fiscal policy — has been making the fight against corruption the key plank of its electoral platform.

This play of perceptions seems to be earning Dr Slaa political mileage, and troubling Kikwete’s advisers.

For instance, Kikwete is campaigning for Edward Lowassa, former prime minister to return to parliament, even though the latter was forced to resign because of the Richmond scandal, where he presided over an illegal procurement deal of fake and over priced thermal generators.

“Kikwete’s association with such people, and campaigning for them, contradicts CCM’s founding principles and introduces a credibility gap in CCM,” said Azaveri Lwaitama, a political analyst and don at the University of Dar es Salaam.

Secondly, the calibre of leaders in CCM has changed over the years; in Nyerere’s era, wealthy members of the party were not allowed to take up leadership positions as per the organisation’s leadership code. Currently, the wealthy are calling the shots at CCM, Dr Lwaitama said.

Kikwete has also been accused of looking on politicians and bureaucrats close to CCM and allocating houses formerly owned by the government to themselves.

On his part, Kikwete has made the economy the centre of his campaign, pledging infrastructural development, job creation and improvement in agriculture.