THE TYRANNY OF NUMBERS AND ETHNIC POLITICAL PATRONAGE IN KENYA

Tyranny of Numbers was a hypothesis that was generated by Mutahi Ngunyi with a conclusion that Raila Odinga and his 'CORD Alliance' lost 2013 election to Uhuru Kenyatta Jubilee Alliance the moment the voter registration ended on December 18, 2012. Uhuru went on to win the election and Jubilee won majority on both houses

An Overview of Kenya  Pre-election Analysis: The Tyranny of Numbers Mutahi Ngunyi (2013), argues that a political contest can only be won on numbers. With the assistance of other political analysts, he had done some more research on figures and the general political mood on the ground from various regions as Kenya neared the general elections. Ngunyi’s analysis divides Kenya into eight regions and the numbers from each region are as follows:

 Central Kenya, 2,190,476 voters.

Nyanza had 1,954,756 voters,

Western Kenya 1,434,987 voters
,
 Coastal regions had1, 640,083 voters

 North Eastern region with 504,482 voters

 Eastern region with 2,092,883 voters,

Rift Valley with 3,373,853 voters

and Nairobi 1,778,903 voters.

The hypothesis indicated that the Jubilee Alliance of Uhuru Kenyatta will win the 2013 presidential election in the first round with a substantial majority over the Cord Coalition of Raila Odinga. In contrast to this, numerous opinion polls indicated otherwise.Ngunyi then uses electoral demographics to build what, on examination, was described as a house of cards. The Jubilee Alliance, he argued, begins with such a large numerical advantage the effort needed to secure an electoral victory is infinitesimally small. He argue Jubilee should win the presidential election in the first round. This inevitable victory comes from the Jubilee Coalition’s “bankable” ethnic vote of 6.2 Million (or 43.2% of the total vote).

 This number is basically a totting up of the registered GEMA and the Kalenjin voters. On that same ethnic logic, Mutahi reckons that CORD Coalition starts off with 19.2% of the vote or 2.74 million votes. For CORD to win, he says, they need to double their support. Or as he puts it, for CORD to catch up with Jubilee, it must multiply each of its Kamba and Luo vote by 2.3. Virtually impossible is the implication.^[2]

The election outcome was as hypothesized. Cord coalition lost to Jubilee alliance. All the Opinion polls were nullified by the announcement of the final result by IEBC. Jubilee also boast of having majority in both houses i.e National Assembly and Senate.

Ngunyi says that: It’s regrettable that most of us are going to vote on the basis of tribal orientation. For Uhuru Kenyatta is banking on central province, Rift Valley, Nairobi and Eastern to win the presidency. If he manages to galvanize these regions he can easily win during the first round . I strongly consider the fact and reality on the ground that most Kenyans are likely to vote.

More read here
fhttp://tijoss.com/9th%20Volume/WycliffeAmukowa,.pdf