How Kenyan Muslim will vote next election

Hassan Ole Naado is the CEO of Kenya Muslim Youth Allinace and deputy secretary general of the Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims. The Muslim Leaders Forum (MLF), to which I also serve as the Secretary General, issued a press statement to explain why they support the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) championed by Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, and Trade Minister Moses Wetangula. In the statement, MLF acknowledged that the March 4 General Election will indeed be a two-horse race— a contest between hope on one hand, and uncertainty on the other. MLF said that Cord espouses the aspirations of majority of Kenyans, Muslims included, for good and sound leadership. Most importantly, Cord represents a leadership that is committed to the full implementation of the new constitution, which Muslims actively campaigned for during the 2010 referendum. Cord’s competitor, on the other hand, is dominated by a leadership that vehemently rejected the new constitution. In this regard, there are no prizes for guessing why MLF has openly supported Cord. But the question posed by skeptics after we issued the statement is— do MLF have the numbers to make a difference in the forthcoming polls? Indeed, this is a very valid question when one looks at the demographics of voters in Kenya. Muslims are a significant minority scattered all over Kenya, and during normal political contests, they rarely vote as a bloc and that is why their vote is often seen as inconsequential. However, during 2007 General Elections and the 2010 constitutional referendum, Muslims voted overwhelmingly as a block because both the plebiscite and elections were issue based. After the 2010 referendum, MLF confidently concluded that Muslims can vote as a bloc if an election is issue-based. In the 2013 polls, MLF has realised that despite our politics being dominated by personalities, there is still an issue that stands out above everything else— the implementation of the new constitution and pursuit of reforms. MLF consulted widely and came up with a report showing that majority of Muslims would support a leadership that is committed to the new constitution— this is how MLF, which comprises Muslim scholars, elders, Imams, businessmen, youth and women leaders, professionals and grassroots opinion shapers, arrived at a decision to support the Cord alliance. MLF has, however, made it clear that it does not impose its choice on all Muslims because we know and understand that there are Muslims who support other coalitions and we respect their democratic right to do so. Instead, MLF has pledged to use its in-house resources and organizational capacity to persuade as many Muslims as possible to support and vote for Cord. And to the question about whether MLF has the numbers to make an impact— the answer is in the affirmative. After decades of marginalization and near exclusion from the mainstream political and development agenda, the Muslim community has, in the recent past, asserted itself to a point where it is now proving to be a critical voting entity ahead of the March 4 General Election. Elections are a game of numbers, and Muslims have the numbers to make an impact on the forthcoming polls. In terms of statistics, Muslims account for 10 percent of Kenya’s population — meaning that the community numbers about 4 million according to the 2009 national census. A figure contested by Muslims and other marginalized groups in Kenya. Although four million looks insignificant when compared to Kenya’s 40 million population, the situation is different when Muslims are looked at from an election perspective. According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) figures of listed voters as per December 18, 2012 when the voter registration exercise ended, the total number of voters for the March 4 elections stands at 14.3 million. Although it may not be practically possible to say how many of the 14.3m are Muslim, an analysis of voter demographics according to regions gives one a rough estimate of how many Muslims are registered voters. There are seven counties, which can safely be said to be Muslim-dominated— these are Mombasa, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera. According to IEBC figures, the total number of registered voters in these seven counties is roughly 1,058,529. But Muslims are also scattered across the country, with significant numbers found in Kakamega, Busia, Vihiga, Nakuru, Eldoret, Homa Bay, Kilifi, Nairobi, Muranga, Nyeri, Kitui, Embu, Machakos and Kisumu. When these numbers are added to the ones in the seven Muslim-dominated counties, Muslims could, give and take, account for about 2.3 million of the 14.3 registered voters. Indeed, 2.3 million votes is a very significant figure in a tight election such as the one we expect on March 4. If the Muslim vote was consolidated and cast as a bloc, especially if the elections are issue-based, then the presidential candidate or coalition that receives this vote would have a significant head-start against his or her opponents with regard to Article 138 (4a) of the constitution which states that; a candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives more than half of all votes cast in the election. Apart from being a game changer as a bloc, the Muslim vote could also prove critical in the coming polls in terms of meeting the requirements of Article 138 (4b) which provides that a candidate shall only be declared as President if he or she receives at least 25 percent of the votes cast in each of the more than half of the 47 counties. With close to 2.3 million votes and dominating about seven counties, the Muslim community has, therefore, emerged as a significant electoral bloc that could prove to be a game-changer. Therefore, no one should underestimate the importance of Muslims in the electoral process. The Muslim Leaders Forum understands the importance of Muslims in the electoral process and that is why we are calling upon our brothers and sisters to cast their lot with the Cord alliance because of the commitment this alliance has shown to the implementation of the constitution.After the December 2012 deadline when political parties were required to have deposited their pre-election coalition agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties ahead of the March 4 general election, two major political forces emerged namely; the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) led by Prime Minister Raila Odinga and the Jubilee Coalition under the stewardship of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. Indeed, the emergence of these two political forces was a game-changer because it separated the wheat from the chuff and virtually proved right Mr Odinga’s earlier prediction that the next elections would be a two-horse race. A day after Mr Odinga was formally endorsed as Cord’s presidential flag bearer, and on the day Mr Kenyatta was endorsed to carry the mantle for Jubilee, Muslim scholars and Imams of major mosques from across the country paid a courtesy call on the Prime Minister where they declared support for Cord, saying they would mobilize the Muslim community to vote for his ticket. But this public support for Cord coming from a group of influential Muslim leaders would anger a section of Muslim scholars and Imams especially those who were not involved. The latter spoke to the media 24 hours later to denounce the former, saying that the Muslim community cannot be huddled together like sheep and made to support a particular political group. As someone who has earlier stood against the idea of individuals using the Muslim community to pursue personal political agenda, I was challenged, through social media, to comment on the emerging scenario where the name of the Muslim community is popping up again in political arena after 2007 Namlef led initiative that changed Kenya’s political landscape. In fact, the person who challenged me on Facebook posed this question— isn’t the group that went to see Raila to pledge their support for Cord trying to auction the Muslim community for selfish gains? Whoever posed this question must have had in mind my earlier stand in which I scoffed at Mr Najib Balala for declaring that Raila had become an enemy of Muslims because he had betrayed them by sacking the Mvita MP as Minister for Tourism. Indeed, I disagreed with that position because Mr Balala was trying to drag the entire Muslim community into his personal political differences with the PM. However, when I look at the current situation where Muslim scholars uniting under Muslim Leaders Forum (MLF) that declared support for Cord, I don’t see how the Muslim community is being “auctioned” for the benefit of individuals. First and foremost, I remember this group saying that their support for Cord is based on one major principle— that between Cord and other political alliances formed so far, only Raila’s alliance has demonstrated commitment to uphold fidelity to the new constitution which, if fully implemented, has the solution to many of the challenges that the Muslim community has faced over the years. In view of the opposing views coming from the Muslim community over which coalition to support ahead of the March elections, the most important thing I wish to point out is that Muslims in Kenya are a very democratic people— therefore, their decision on which political path to take can only be reached through persuasion and not religious edicts (fatwa). In this regard, when Muslim Leaders Forum paid a courtesy call on the Prime Minister and say they want to reach-out to other Muslims in order to persuade them into supporting a political course that is committed to implementing the new constitution, then they should be given that opportunity and encouraged to do so. Like the rest of other Kenyans, Muslims are concerned on insecurity, the historical land question, full implementation of 2010 Constitution and establishment of strong and semi autonomous devolved governance structures with strong foundation. This can only be achieved by electing reforms focused political coalition. As a Kenyan who in one way or the other is a victim of past injustices and worried of the future, I throw my weight behind the group that has declared support for Cord on account that this alliance has shown commitment to implement the new constitution. As one among many well meaning Kenyans who spent time and resources to ensure that the new constitution got the full support of the Muslim community during the August 2010 referendum, I must say that the Muslim scholars who went to see the PM demonstrated the kind of political maturity that all other Muslims should emulate. But my support for the pro-Cord group does not mean that I have something against Muslims who choose to support other alliances— I only call upon them to look back to where this country has come from in terms of the quest for reforms and good governance. If they feel the new constitution means something, then they should not hesitate to cast their lot with reformists. I salute the current coalition making politics. However, we should focus our singular attention to the possibility of the coalition being turned into negative tribal tussles of ‘us’ against ‘them’. We had similar coalitions in the last election cycle and we all know where the charged negative campaign took us. The additional danger we have at our hands is the possible decentralization of electoral conflict to the county level. The writer is the outgoing CEO of the Kenya Muslim Youth Alliance Hassan Ole Naado