Monday, 22 April 2013


Africa is on the rise New generation is taking over ," proclaimed Uhuru Kenyatta, taking the oath of office on a bible used by his father Jomo, Kenya's first president after independence from Britain half a century ago.While Museveni was claping his hands after the Kenyata speech now Kaguta is working to die on power.I hope his fellow Professor of Politics Kibaki will tell him to learn this word in Swahili NANGATUKA .

Kaguta after 35 yrs in Power fail to create fancy word like his mentor Julius Nyerere , Nyerere after fail to raise the life standard and was un conpromising with IMF and World Bank .He traveled every village in rural areas to tell Tanzanians the fancy word "Nangatuka " you will never find in Swahili Dictinary so even Museven Learned Swahili in UDSM he cant remember the word " Kungatuka" measns retire and go back to the village ?

He have new Vision for the country Vision 2040 but no vision for Leadership Change. While many Ugandan are working to limit the President for two terms . Yesterday Kaguta suprised many uganda people by giving youth group sacks of Money ?

Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni has publicly handed a sack containing about $100,000 (£66,000) in cash to a youth group, raising questions about how the money will be spent.Do we know how they money will be spent? There's no system of accountability to make sure we get it back if these youth mismanage it.

The donation was broadcast on national television, with many social media comments condemning it.But what has shocked many Ugandans is the amount and the image of their president holding a sack of money.

The most important thing is to understand Museveni’s mind. I get the sense that for whatever reasons, Museveni is terrified of DR Besigye. That makes the president overestimate Besigye and hence overreact to his every move – or even suspected move.

And I think this has been Museveni’s greatest strength which the opposition is perennially blind to. I think one major source of the longevity in power is his obsessive sensitivity to threats to his power. He leaves nothing to chance, takes no risks at all and spares no effort to identify any real, potential or even imaginary threats to his power and nip them in the bud.

Thus Kaguta will tolerate a lot of things in Uganda – public officials that loot the treasury with impunity, incompetent ministers and civil servants who delay dams and roads or build substandard or ghost hospitals and schools etc. Thus, public investments suffer from unnecessary gridlock, senseless public debates and eventually fail or succeed after a decade.

However, if anything posed an existential threat to his power, Museveni will be quick, uncompromising and decisive. The lesson from this is built in the military doctrine of “identification and maintenance of the aim.” A successful commander must clearly define the aim and whatever he does must seek to achieve that aim.

The legendary Chinese military strategist, Sun Zhu, wrote in about 600 BC that wars are lost or won before they are fought. By this he meant that it is the planning, strategising, preparation, reconnaissance, training, logistical build-up etc. that determines the outcome. If your prior planning on all these elements is poor, it is very unlikely you can prevail in war.

The modern equivalent of this Sun Zhu concept was stated by a business strategist I cannot remember. He argued that champions do not win the title in the ring; they are only recognised there. In other words, it is the effort put into training, studying the opponent and mastering his strength and identifying his weaknesses that win the boxing match.

This is exactly the experience I read about the boxer Joe Louis’ first match against German’s Max Schemeling in 1936. Louis had won all his previous 28 matches before he met Schmeling, now aged 30 and considered by critics to be on the downhill of his career.

Louis thus underestimated Schemeling, spending more time playing golf than training (a mistake Mohammed Ali made against Joe Frazier in 1971 leading to his loss of the bout). On the other hand, Schemeling’s managers studied Louis’ boxing and noticed that whenever Louis sent a left hook, his right hand went down, thus exposing his jaw. Schemiling capitalised on this weakness and constantly jabbed Louis on the right. In the thrilling match in the Yankee Stadium in New York, Louis was stunned by this trick and was knocked out in the 14th round.

suspect the opposition in Uganda has failed to make significant progress in their struggle to wrestle power from Museveni because of lack of proper assessment of their opponent. In every single election battle, he has overestimated their capacity to defeat him while they have underestimated his capacity to win. They have therefore mobilised less ammunition than is necessary to shake his hold on power. On his part, Museveni leaves nothing to chance, using everything at his command – money, coercion, subterfuge, mass media, and technology.

I do not see this level of doggedness among those who organise resistance to Museveni. All too often, they seem comfortable to lie to themselves that he is weak and wobbly. They assume, quite wrongly, that the public is tired of the general corruption, incompetence, inertia, indifference, apathy and incoherence in his government.

From this assumption, Opposition they proceed to project that the public is ready for change.

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