Saturday, 14 November 2015

Why CCM lost election in Zanzibar

There is no secret CUF completely out maneuvered CCM in registering voters in their strongholds and did a massive campain to register as many voters as possible.. Local political analyst estimated (of the tyranny of numbers fame) was partly right when he said Maalim will winby 55 % teh prediction of CUF it will be  won the election on October 25th ,but the slight margin came very close to 52.87 Compare to 43% projected and got slight higher 46% of Curent President  Dr Sheni the day voter registration closed. Again here CCM could have done better. 

Many youth in this strongholds did not register for lack of national identification cards. Many analysts concluded following the election that CUF won partly because of their strategic use of the union reform agenda and the New constitution which is one of the issue many Zanzibari even from the moderate ruling party were un happy with new Constitution which was hijacked by CCM . I hold the position that the autonomy only made it more likely . The advantage here could have gone either way but it seem Zanzibari are in need of changes. Late last year opinion polls were still showing at least 50% of  Zanzibari wanting changes to improve there lives and  many Zanzibari belive ruling party is un able to negotiate better terms of the union and CUF made UNION AGENDA to be main agenda for the future of the union.

Another benefit of CUF wining this electin was un happy group from CCM which contribute massively and even campained secretly to there relatives and friends to vote against the CCM. There were ministers form CCM who contributed on every level to make sure CCM will not stay in power even contributed  financial secretly to the CUF. There are even some CCM minsiters who sent congratulation message to Maalim Seif after he declare he is leading by 52.87.. 

Why CUF won more seats in Sister Island of Unguja this time CUF show impressife results by wining 9 seats of House of representative and all seats from PEmba Islands. Many believe the union sentiment of showing military power and the use of Military tanks in Zanzibar has infuriated Zanzibari form previous elections and this election has put Tanzania union in the dilema after the Union Leaders show synmpathy to the ruling party ainstead of showing there Indipendence.Many Zanzibari are wondering if we should ask for refrendum in oreder tp preotect our Democracy.

Why Tanzania union are in Crisis ?
There is no way Union will survive if this Zanzibar political fiasco not been solved in a fair way to preserve the right of wining party .This blogger beleive union will be in crisis and lose popularity in one side if the union side with CCM losing side and will go to the lowest point since was formed in 1964.

Why CCM lost all seats in Pemba Since 1995  the final  analysis democratic elections are about numbers. And sometimes a candidate just doesn’t have the numbers. CCM spent million in this Pemba Island to have hope of gaining more votes while Pemba residents already historical when they made their mind  you cant manipulate them on money. The another adavantage of CUf wining more seats in Unguja Islands the change of demographic many Pembans are iimigrating in Unguja Island and they will always stay with CUF no matter where they immigrate.

 Un employment is another factor agaisnt ruling party many analyst predict if you call another Peacefull election CUF will win over 58% many CUF constituency have found quick reserch there are about 30 000 registered voters did not vote and are likely to vote if there is new Election , and there is possibilty CUF to increase the seats in Unguja Island from 9 seats to 14 seats.DR Sheni party needs to do a lot of soul searching and be honest in its assessment of the conduct of the last election. They were caught flatfooted, playing the politics of yesterday – mass rallies and whipping up emotions – instead of meticulously planning and targeting voters for registration, turnout, and with specific messages.some analysts, see the GNU was seen as the beginning of a new Zanzibar, but judging from the political situation in the wake of events taking place there, the Indian Ocean archipelago is heading toward another era of animosities. -

Why CCM Ruling class is fairful with CUF runing the country ?  Zanzibar is a country of land grabbers with the biggest land grabber being the politians form the CCM ruling class.if you want t o name it even the curent unin VP Samia Suluhu is part of this gang.
Just like any Zanzibari  fool will tell you, members of the CCM Mafia cartel have taken over every key State institution which matters in the wielding of power. Name it – COurts , the Attorney General, the Peoples Bank, the Ministry of Finance etc are all occupied by CCM mafia. The fear is that once CUF takes power, the Mafia cartel will lose these positions which, they fear, will be distributed to members of other communities. In short, the CCM mafia fear the advent of real democracy if Maalim comes to power. For this reason, election has to be rigged and Maalim has to be kept away from State House as much as possible.The agenda was to maintain the status quo  and the strategy was to rig through the electronic system. This strategy failed, forcing the riggers to turn to the manual system. The fear now is that if Maalim  takes over, the riggers will all be in trouble because ZEC (Election commsion  will have to be answerable.

 The whole plot will come in the open and the criminals fear that they will be brought to face the law. For this reason, the Mafia has sworn that they will never allow Maalim to take power in Zanzibar, even in the face of blood-shed.
Much of the stolen tax payer’s money is in Zanzibar  because the thieves understood long time that Wazungu might detain their loot if they transport them abroad. The looting of the economy has been such that money stolen from the PBZ Bank and other institutions are stored in go-downs across the country. The looters have been unable to bank the money abroad for fear of it being discovered and confiscated while they have also been afraid of banking the loot in Tanzania  banks for fear that in case of a regime changein Mainland Tanganyika, they could lose big time. This left them with go-downs as the only option and the amount runs into billions.

The final reason why CCM  Mafia is opposed to a Maalim Seif  Presidency is because he is popular among the people of Zanzibar.. The problem with Maalims popularity is that millions of Zanzibari  are likely to give him support in any move to dismantle the old and rotten  power structure in Zanzibar. It is easy to deal with a leader who is not liked by the people but when it comes to a leader whom majority of citizens view as their true leader, the situation becomes complicated. For this reason, the Zanzibar CCM Mafia are in panic mode.
The conclusion for last election
When the problem is country-wide, it is usually just a matter of time before the masses take over their country. That is in case the United Nations does not vote for a direct military intervention in case the army begins to kill civilians.
Hosni Mubarak had a whole army on his side for years but he had to quit because of mass pressure. His best friend for decades, the Americans, abandoned him and sided with the people, telling him to quit. Saddam Hussein had his trusted Republican Guards who never fired a shot as Saddam was being overthrown. The Yugoslav army could not stop the splitting of the country while in the former USSR, the biggest army in the world could not stop the masses from getting their way when the time came. The late Hugo Chavez was overthrown by a CIA-led military coup but the people re-instated him to power after overriding the army. How does the CCM expect to get their way if the people of Zanzibar want Maalim seif  to take over the Zanzibar Presidency?

Can Military be used to supress democracy in Zanzibar 

A Type 07PA vehicle like the kind operated by Tanzania.The Tanzania People's Defence Force (TPDF) has taken delivery of a range of new hardware from China, including Type 63A amphibious tanks, A100 multiple rocket launchers and Type 07PA self-propelled mortars.

According to IHS Janes Defence Weekly, the new equipment, which was quietly acquired from China over the past few years, was unveiled at the 50th Tanzanian independence anniversary celebrations which were held at the Uhuru Stadium in Dar es Salaam on April 25. 
As days go by, the situation in Zanzibar and Tanzania will remain complicated. If the Tanzania  Intelligence does not think hard for the Zanzibar Mafia, the whole gang might end up joining both Uhuru and Ruto at the ICC in the coming future. This is because it is very unlikely that millions of Tanzanians will accept a President forced on them unless the Mafia is ready to kill all people  who are not ready to except with  using security forces. These are hard times for Zanzibari but unfortunately, it is now or never. The country is no longer on the precipice but on the edge of a deep abyss

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